Fed releases stress test results

The Federal Reserve Board yesterday announced that the results of its annual bank stress test showed that while large banks would endure greater losses than last year's test, they are well positioned to weather a severe recession and stay above minimum capital requirements. Additionally, the Board published aggregate results from its first exploratory analysis, which will not affect bank capital requirements.

The Board's stress test is one tool to help ensure that large banks can support the economy during downturns. The test evaluates the resilience of large banks by estimating their capital levels, losses, revenue and expenses under a single hypothetical recession and financial market shock, using banks' data as of the end of last year. The individual results from the stress test inform a bank's capital requirements to help ensure a bank could survive a severe recession and financial market shock.

The Board also conducted an exploratory analysis, including two funding stresses to all banks tested and two trading book stresses to only the largest and most complex banks. The exploratory analysis is distinct from the stress test, exploring additional hypothetical risks to the broader banking system.

The two funding stresses include a rapid repricing of deposits, combined with a more severe and less severe recession. Under each element, large banks would remain above minimum capital requirements in aggregate, with capital ratio declines of 2.7 percentage points and 1.1 percentage points, respectively. Under the two trading book stresses, which included the failure of five large hedge funds under different market conditions, the largest and most complex banks are projected to lose between $70 billion and $85 billion. The results demonstrated that these banks have material exposure to hedge funds but that they can withstand different types of trading book shocks.