If the league knew about it I would have expected them to take charge of the balls to ensure that no funny business takes place as this was a playoff game not a preseason match.

If the gauges were faulty, they would have been faulty for both teams.

the decrease at halftime is explainable by weather

They were. Read the report. One thing you have to keep in mind is that the starting point for the Colts balls was higher than the starting point for the Patriots balls. You also have to keep in mind that the Colts balls sat in the warm locker room at halftime for 10 minutes before they were tested.

maybe, maybe not. If the balls were inflated and checked inside a locker room at a high temperature (high relative to outside temps), then yes, there would be some impact, but it would be minimal - less than 1 PSI lost.

But, if they were checked after inflation outside at temps, then there would be no impact, or a negligible amount.

As someone who officiates real football, often in very cold conditions, I can tell you that my experience is a ball pumped up indoors loses less than 5% PSI when taking it outdoors. If pumped up outdoors, then it loses nothing. Inflation amounts are similar, in real football I put 12 PSI in each ball, using my handy gauge that cost a whopping $8...every ball is inflated to 12 PSI, and unless the ball has a leak, they stay at 12 PSI. If there is a leak, it wouldn't drop to 10 PSI and stay there, it would drop to near empty.

although I may go with the ghosts option above

As those of you who were visiting PFT frequently in the early days of #DeflateGate may recall, the Ideal Gas Law refers to the formula that determines the changes in gases based on various factors, including but not limited to volume, pressure, and temperature. And the Wells report concludes that all Patriots footballs should have measured between 11.52 and 11.32 PSI at halftime.

But that observation hinges on the question of which gauge was used to set the PSI prior to kickoff. If the gauge that generates the higher numbers was used, the measurements of the Patriots footballs taken by that gauge are mostly consistent with the 11.52-11.32 PSI range at halftime: (1) 11.8; (2) 11.2; (3) 11.5; (4) 11.0; (5) 11.45; (6) 11.95; (7) 12.3; (8) 11.55; (9) 11.35; (10) 10.9; and (11) 11.35.

Based on those readings, three of the footballs were above the predicted range, five were in the predicted range, and three were below the predicted range.

By assuming that the gauge that generates the lower readings was used before the game began, the readings taken by that same gauge at halftime show that one ball was above the predicted range, two were in the predicted range, and eight were below the predicted range. Which is more consistent with the conclusion that some degree of tampering occurred.

So, basically, the scientific proof of tampering hinges on a literal coin flip between the pressure gauge that generated a higher reading and the pressure gauge that generated a lower reading. Apart from the very real problems inherent to the NFL using pressure gauges that generate such dramatically different readings for a key postseason game, the justification used to assume that Walt Anderson used before kickoff the gauge that makes tampering more likely doesn’t feel like the outcome of a scientific experiment. It feels like an effort to work backward to justify a predetermined conclusion.

so if I read the "science" behind the PFT point you posted, either way they had too many balls under inflated at halftime...be it 3 or 8...

not sure i'm understanding the point you are trying to make. Maybe that they cheated but not as much as the NFL claims?

Let me get this straight.

Patriots are fined $1 Mil.

Brady sits, saving Patriots $2 Mil in salary.

Patriots are up $1 Mil, and they have a fresh, healthy quarterback for the Colts game.

How did they get penalized?

My point is that there are flaws to the data so you don't get to pick and choose which parts of the data you believe. So let's say that deliberate deflation did occur. If you accept that Walt Coleman says every single Patriots ball was at 12.5 before the game, and if you accept that weather causes the pressure to drop in all of the balls, to an scientifically expected 11.5 - 11.32 range, how do you explain the 12.3 psi ball? Was Coleman wrong? Was at least one ball over 12.5 to start the game? Did McNally add air to that particular ball? Or is it possible that the whole process of checking pressure before the game and checking pressure at halftime was so filled with flaws that it invalidates all of the pressure data?

How many games do they lose while Brady sits? What impact on the long-term strength of the team do the forfeited draft picks have?

Wells report claims 11 of 12 as they did not count the one that the Colts tested

Wells report claims 11 of 12 as they did not count the one that the Colts tested

Wells report could have said with equal accuracy "3 of 11 balls tested were below the expected range on one of the gauges used". Which quote produces more emotional buy-in to the desired outcome conclusion when combined with other circumstantial evidence?

the more games they lose the better the next draft pick is.

so then at least 8 we can say?

Which said draft pick is forfeited, so what does it matter how good it is? The short term penalty against the Patriots is possible losses. The long term penalty against the Patriots is lost draft picks, made worse by the fact that with the losses, those picks would have been higher picks.

Why did the report come out days after the current draft?

Because the NFL is incompetent.