As it stands today, yes that is a safe assumption, IMO.
You can take elements of the chip data and place it on a magstripe but the transaction data will show it was magstripe read or a fallback in that scenario. In those two situations (magstripe read or fallback), yes a counterfeit card is possible. Card brands really need to pressure merchants and acquirers to dump magstripes and fallback nonsense in the US.
There are other data elements on the native EMV chip like transaction counters and rotating cryptograms that are no more good once cloned. If the transaction is chip card on chip reader using EMV, you can be confident (today) it is the genuine card.
I would only see mobile wallet tokens as an exception as mobile wallet registers as contactless chip-read at the POS. A fraudseter with knowledge of the card number, exp and cvv can load a card into mobile wallet but it requires subterfuge to trick the cardholder into helping the fraudster load the card into the fraudster's mobile wallet as most issuers have MFA as part of that process. That said, the transaction data indicates it is mobile wallet token transaction and would look for that before determining it was the genuine card and therefr native EMV.
That said, I guess there is always the chance a sophisticated fraud operation figures out EMV cloning for the first time, though outside the US the technology has been used since the 1990's without being cracked..... yet.
I will hang up my hat the day that happens and find a different industry than banking. Or, hopefully, I'll be close enough to retirement at that point to call it a career.
